Here's something a little different. I thought I'd do a very small 'alternative history' - where things go differently. You're probably familiar with the term in respect to things like 'what if the Nazis won WWII' or 'what if we still used airships' but here's something rather smaller-scale. The basic premise is that yesterday's meetup with Toby Turner in London got rather out of hand: a meetup that was meant to last around 2 hours ended in just 20 or so minutes with the internet celebrity retreating to a taxi. This was following a chaotic crush with around 2,000 people present. I was at the event and enjoyed it, but I appreciate it could certainly have gone better, and avoided the internet backlash that it has been receiving this morning. So the simple question is: how could it have been improved?
4:00 - Toby's predicted arrival time
4:40 - Toby arrives from the northeast of the Albert Memorial. The majority of fans are on the south side, facing towards the Royal Albert Hall. Toby is Lazyvlogging as he enters on his heelies; my friends and I run along beside him.
4:41 - The majority of the crowd rushes to the east side of the Memorial, pressing Toby against the rope fence of the East Albert Lawn. Over the next few minutes a combination of Toby moving and the crowd's inertia pushes Toby against eastern fence of the Memorial - this is where the vlog he uploaded was filmed at.
4:45 - Toby climbs over the fence of the Memorial, allegedly injuring himself on the spikes, but meets mass audience applause. A few people then climb over too.
4:48 - Toby exits via the northern side of the Memorial. As I passed by I saw at least two people who had caught their shoes on the spikes and fall over onto the Memorial steps.
4:50 - The crowd's inertia pushes Toby past the northeast corner of the Memorial. At this point he is still taking part in pictures being taken.
4:51 - Toby manages to push out of the crowd and runs east, along the East Albert Lawn, followed by the crowd; I manage to shake his hand at around about this point.
4:55 - Toby leaves Hyde Park and gets into a taxi.
5:00 - The first police units arrive; some people are already leaving while others remain talking to YouTubers Seth and Syndicate.
Clearly, this is far from an ideal course of events. Being at the event itself, my immediate reaction to Toby's problem was that he lacked any tough guys to try and form a perimeter around him (no way was simple human restraint going to manage - we were hyped up and in full-on herd mentality mode). Had Toby had some form of security with him then the event would likely have been a little more contained and he would've had a little more personal space. Then again, even a few big guys wouldn't be enough against the 2,000 excited fans that were there. More importantly, in terms of alternative history, it wasn't in character for him to bring security. So in order to still create a successful event without indulging in unusual twists of character, we'll have to consider alternative routes.
Toby's original route
One of the other obvious problems was that despite being the focus of the crowd's adoration, Toby lacked the force of character or physical presence to stand up for himself against the herd mentality. (He's about 5'10, if you're wondering.) Being at the centre of a very noisy crowd he could barely even make himself heard, as various videos will testify. However, there was a solution to this problem.
While my friends and I were waiting amongst the crowd, there was one particularly vocal group who were leading chants and songs and, crucially, had a megaphone. The issue is that Toby arrived from the northeast, and the last time I saw this group (about a minute or two before Toby arrived) they were standing on a podium southwest of the Memorial. They would probably have been among the last people to arrive in the crowd.
What effect would this have?
Well, if we assume Toby turns up roundabout the same time - for all we know his taxi dropped him off elsewhere, or he got off at a different tube station - and he arrives via the west, he will immediately come into contact with a much, much larger crowd. This could mean, though, that he is in even greater risk of physical harm in a 'crush'. While the megaphone will be closer to him, it still may not percolate through the crowd and reach him. So we will have to ensure that the crowd exercises restraint straight away. Fortunately, Toby provided for exactly that solution at the time.
The initial crush, featuring silly string and derp faces
Toby arrived with heelies, but stumbled as he stopped his 'glide' in. Now, let's say that by being distracted - indeed, shocked - by the size of the crowd, Toby fully trips up this time as he rolls in on his heelies, while the crowd approaches. So rather than people rushing to hug Toby, the first people to arrive are helping him up. Depending on how he hits the floor - be it on his front or on his back (heelies are notorious for making you slip over backwards and hit the back of your head) - Toby could be disoriented for a short while. The first to arrive would therefore have more incentive to look out for and look after him straight away. As Toby is helped to his feet, a small core of the crowd is immediately telling the others to 'back off' and 'give him space'. Backed up by a small group of people, Toby would have at least a few looking out for him and so the initial crush would be mitigated.
However, as he fell, we'll assume that Toby dropped his phone with which he was vlogging (he was filming while he rode in yesterday). While most of the initial wave to reach Toby are looking out for him, a few are going on pure adrenaline, and one joker thinks it's a good idea to pick up Toby's phone - still recording - and film himself on it. Only a few seconds later, though, someone else gets hold of it, and suddenly the phone has a life of its own as it is passed through the crowd. We'll assume, for the sake of fun, that it survives more or less intact. The result is Toby gets perhaps one of his greatest audience-interaction vlogs ever.
Of course, some people would be calling out on Toby's behalf 'where's my phone?'. Beyond a few revellers who may then start to sing 'where ma keys, where ma phone' in true Britain's Got Talent style, this will also encourage people to start spreading the news in the crowd, creating a mildly more subdued and responsible tone. I've no delusions that this will turn the crowd, which was primarily composed of excitable teens, into responsible people - not at all - but it will raise the percentage of those genuinely looking out for Toby, while giving him space at the same time.
Toby has also created another advantage for himself through entering from the west: he is now on South Carriage Drive, at the bottom of the steps leading up to the fence of the Memorial. This means that the people waiting on the steps have a good chance of getting a view of Toby, and while there will be pushing - which will be risky and unpleasant on the stairs - the desperation to see Toby will not be so much, since he will be more visible from the higher elevation at the top of the steps. The downside to all this means that I will be at the back of the crowd in this version of the event but Toby will be having a marginally safer time, which is what that matters.
Now, as Toby moves up the stairs past the southwest podium of the plaza surrounding the Albert Memorial, he should pass straight past the group with the megaphone. This group will immediately be leading cheers, but will almost inevitably pass on the megaphone to Toby. While it wasn't the loudest of megaphones at the time, it will give Toby exactly the authority he needs, and without having to distract himself by vlogging at the same time, he will be able to focus on what he's doing and where he's going and actually maintain some control. Meanwhile his calls will be passed on by those spread out through the crowd who, having asked once about Toby's phone, feel that it's a good idea to basically act as message-carriers and relay the calls for order they hear from the others in their 'relay chain' of messages.
The crowd that Toby will face when he arrives
Toby will still reach the fence of the Memorial this time round, only this time it will be the south face, having navigated through the crowd and up the stairs. I get the feeling that at this point a more significant crush will occur, the first such in this version of events. It's probable, therefore, that he will still climb over the fence and onto the steps leading up to the Memorial itself. Armed with the megaphone, though, he will now more effectively be able to tell people not to cross, and there will be a few people scattered throughout the crowd trying to back that up. A few will still jump over the fence, and a few may try to climb via the statue plinths on the four corners of the Memorial's fence to get in too. I like to think that in this course of events I will still be hanging onto the side of the 'Asia' plinth to get a good view of Toby, and perhaps not let some rabble-rousers through, which could well impact the course of events.
After this point, it's hard to say what will happen, as Toby now has control of the megaphone and can probably direct things as he actually wants to happen. I haven't been to - or seen - any other meetups of Toby's so I don't know what this would involve - singing? Chanting? General rambling? There'd certainly be a 'hello audience' in there. However, with Toby up there - plus a few of his self-appointed bodyguards - there will definitely be more structure to the event. Moreover, some people will fan outwards to get a better view of Toby on the Memorial stairs. No doubt that at some point Seth will join Toby, as will Syndicate, who had joined the event of his own accord. At this point, Toby can now safely talk with his audience, as well as do autographs and photographs while he is standing behind the fence.
I get the feeling that it will be a matter of time for Toby until the number of individuals crossing the fence turns into a general assumption, even amongst the more sensible members of the crowd, that crossing the fence is a good idea. I should point out that it wasn't: those spikes were sharp and dangerous. Since we're trying to create the most positive event we'll hope that Toby manages to shout down anyone trying to cross the fence with his megaphone and no more than a few actually try it, and as few as possible receive injuries from doing so.
The police, too, will probably eventually turn up, for the same reasons. It's possible an ambulance may turn up after an overly-worried audience member interprets Toby's initial tumble as requiring medical attention; if so, any accidents involving the fence spikes may just have the people there needed. The police will arrive around twenty minutes in, only this time, Toby's event is going well, and the police are more likely to simply, well, police, and arrest anyone who crosses the fence again. Again, we're assuming here that Toby has crossed back over the fence by 5pm; if he ends up getting arrested for trespassing in front of 2,000 fans, things will get horrifically ugly and the current shouting about the event being a 'riot' will pale in comparison to what could have happened.
Perhaps, as Toby crosses the fence again, he again takes a small tumble. This will reinforce those looking out for him but at the cost of making him look like a royally clumsy plonker. I'm sure that that's a reputation he can handle, though. With his 'escort' reinforced Toby can more-or-less safely move through the crowd, having photos taken, doing autographs, and so forth. If his phone has been returned he can now tweet and shout-out to audience members too, as well as continuing the vlog from his own point of view. He may end up bumping into one of the several people carrying a guitar; expect a rendition of the 'subscribe' song to follow. No doubt after some people meet him they will leave and the crowd will slim down, marginally, maybe by around a hundred or so.
Our final hurdle: overcoming this most undignified exit
When this will actually happen is unsure, and is also the difficult part: how will we avoid another stampede, as actually happened yesterday as the people chase Toby? I'm sure his designated bodyguards will tire of their responsibility and the control over Toby will lax. Then again, the initial peak of excitement may have passed and while the individual fans Toby meets will be excited from anticipation, the general mood will end up more relaxed. Moreover, some police may well end up hanging close by to Toby, ensuring that wild antics do not immediately follow. The crowd will also be a little more broken up if Seth and Syndicate are also present, each attracting a smaller sub-crowd of their own. Around an hour or so in people will probably be starting to leave in small numbers, and if Toby stays the whole two hours - leaving at 6:40 - then the crowd will be appreciably smaller and people will be sauntering off for dinner in one of the Kensington cafes. (They're mostly teenagers - do you really expect them to dine at anything more classy than a Subway?) I'd imagine the crowd could be as little as 'only' 1,000 or so by the time the event is over. This would then allow Toby to more calmly exit to a taxi, and while there will still be the same degree of crowding around his taxi as there was yesterday - and people running after it as it leaves - it will not be the result of Toby having been chased into retreat.
The route to success
So the overall result is that Tobuscus' London meetup is a much calmer and more placid event, relying on audience maturity - which could manifest under the right circumstances - and while it will still be wild and bubbling with excitement, with significant herd mentality, we won't have anywhere near the chaos that characterised yesterday's event. Of course, I personally would have been far away from Toby all the way through, and the chance of me shaking his hand would be significantly reduced. Moreover, I would've been late for my party that night, as a result of a longer event. But we wouldn't have an internet storm decrying the event as an 'embarrassment' and people saying they are 'disappointed to be British'. So while this may not be the most totally probable course of events - it's engineered to produce the most positive course of events, rather than the most realistic - it would certainly have resulted in a much more enjoyable and much less chaotic event.
But if Toby's looking for advice, then I'd say rely on bodyguards, because the luck I outlined here is nowhere near the guarantee of security a few tough guys offer.
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